5 papers
The Squealer: Sensification of model exploration and model misfit
Andrew Gelman, Andrew H. Jaffe, Eliot Carlson +1
We introduce a method for visual and auditory feedback when exploring the fit of a model to data. Starting with a best-fit curve fit to data, the user can drag the curve to a new p…
Approximate posterior recalibration
Tiffany Cai, Philip Greengard, Ben Goodrich +1
Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribut…
A Bayesian analysis of home advantage in professional squash
Philip Greengard, Samer Takriti
We estimate the effect of playing in one's home country in professional squash using a Bayesian hierarchical model applied to men's and women's Professional Squash Association matc…
A calibrated BISG for inferring race from surname and geolocation
Philip Greengard, Andrew Gelman
Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a ubiquitous tool for predicting race and ethnicity using an individual's geolocation and surname. Here we demonstrate that statistica…
Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Mitigate Systematic Disparities in Prediction with Proxy Outcomes
Jonas Mikhaeil, Andrew Gelman, Philip Greengard
Label bias occurs when the outcome of interest is not directly observable and instead, modeling is performed with proxy labels. When the difference between the true outcome and the…