2 papers
econ.EM2026
The Shape of Macroeconomic Beliefs
Giovanni Angelini
Macroeconomic expectations are usually observed through point forecasts or through asset prices whose mapping into beliefs is model-dependent. This paper uses prediction-market pri…
econ.EM2026
When Do Markets Fully Process Public Information? Evidence from Real-Time Prediction Markets
Giovanni Angelini, Luca De Angelis
How efficiently do markets update beliefs when public information arrives in rapid sequence? We use a real-time prediction market setting that combines binary payoffs, precisely ob…