most citedTransformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

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cs.AI2023★ 1 cited

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Ari Allyn-Feuer, Ted Sanders

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and fin…