26 citations · 29 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 1 filter
Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers
John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker +6
AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predic…
Winter Precipitation Type Diagnosis and Uncertainty Quantification with a Physically Consistent Machine Learning Method
Charlie Becker, David John Gagne, Julie Demuth +8
Accurately forecasting winter precipitation type and its transitions is critical for high-impact decision making. However, existing methods struggle in thermodynamically ambiguous…
Consistency Conditions for Differentiable Surrogate Losses
Drona Khurana, Anish Thilagar, Dhamma Kimpara +1
The statistical consistency of surrogate losses for discrete prediction tasks is often checked via the condition of calibration. However, directly verifying calibration can be ardu…
CAMulator: Fast Emulation of the Community Atmosphere Model
William E. Chapman, John S. Schreck, Yingkai Sha +5
We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state give…