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8 papers
fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting
Oleksandr Shchur, Abdul Fatir Ansari, Caner Turkmen +5
Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly with the rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks ofte…
Test-Time Efficient Pretrained Model Portfolios for Time Series Forecasting
Mert Kayaalp, Caner Turkmen, Oleksandr Shchur +4
Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio o…
Correct, Concise and Complete: Multi-stage Training For Adaptive Reasoning
Nathanaël Carraz Rakotonirina, Ren Pang, Neha Anna John +2
The reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have improved substantially through increased test-time computation, typically in the form of intermediate tokens known a…
Multi-layer Stack Ensembles for Time Series Forecasting
Nathanael Bosch, Oleksandr Shchur, Nick Erickson +2
Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forec…
Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting
Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur, Jaris Küken +20
Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely…
Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting with Covariates via In-Context Learning
Andreas Auer, Raghul Parthipan, Pedro Mercado +5
Pretrained time series models, capable of zero-shot forecasting, have demonstrated significant potential in enhancing both the performance and accessibility of time series forecast…