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13 papers
fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting
Oleksandr Shchur, Abdul Fatir Ansari, Caner Turkmen +5
Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly with the rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks ofte…
SenTSR-Bench: Thinking with Injected Knowledge for Time-Series Reasoning
Zelin He, Boran Han, Xiyuan Zhang +10
Time-series diagnostic reasoning is essential for many applications, yet existing solutions face a persistent gap: general reasoning large language models (GRLMs) possess strong re…
Test-Time Efficient Pretrained Model Portfolios for Time Series Forecasting
Mert Kayaalp, Caner Turkmen, Oleksandr Shchur +4
Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio o…
Comparing and Contrasting DLWP Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics
Matthias Karlbauer, Danielle C. Maddix, Abdul Fatir Ansari +5
A large number of Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) architectures -- based on various backbones, including U-Net, Transformer, Graph Neural Network, and Fourier Neural Operat…
Mitra: Mixed Synthetic Priors for Enhancing Tabular Foundation Models
Xiyuan Zhang, Danielle C. Maddix, Junming Yin +11
Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Withou…
Understanding the Implicit Biases of Design Choices for Time Series Foundation Models
Annan Yu, Danielle C. Maddix, Boran Han +7
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a class of potentially powerful, general-purpose tools for time series forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is stron…