3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Boosting Ensembles for Statistics of Tails at Conditionally Optimal Advance Split Times
Justin Finkel, Paul A. O'Gorman
Climate science needs more efficient ways to study high-impact, low-probability extreme events. Ensemble boosting, a form of rare event sampling, offers a novel strategy to extract…
physics.ao-ph2026
Routes to rare events with optimally timed perturbations: a Tent Map is all you need
Justin Finkel
Extreme weather events are difficult to understand for the same reason that they are dangerous: they happen rarely, catching victims unprepared when they do occur and scientists un…
physics.ao-ph2026
Rare event sampling for moving targets: extremes of temperature and daily precipitation in a general circulation model
Justin Finkel, Paul A. O'Gorman
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding.…