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stat.AP2026
Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Under-Five Malaria Admissions in Ghana: A Gaussian Process Regression with Holt-Winters Smoothing
T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane, J. Bremang Tandoh
Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the r…
stat.AP2026
Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler
T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane, J. Bremang Tandoh
Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from…