62 citations · 173 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Computation of random time-shift distributions for stochastic population models
Dylan Morris, John Maclean, Andrew J. Black
Even in large systems, the effect of noise arising from when populations are initially small can persist to be measurable on the macroscale. A deterministic approximation to a stoc…
A stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases
Andrew Black, Andrew Smith, Alun Lloyd +1
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, an…
Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from household-structured symptom onset data
P. G. Ballard, A. J. Black, J. V. Ross
First Few X (FFX) studies collect household-stratified data in the early stages of a pandemic, in order to infer severity and transmissibility of an emerging disease. We present a…
Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models
Andrew J. Black
We present an importance sampling algorithm that can produce realisations of Markovian epidemic models that exactly match observations, taken to be the number of a single event typ…
Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data
James N. Walker, Joshua V. Ross, Andrew J. Black
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for infer…
Computation of epidemic final size distributions
Andrew J. Black, J. V. Ross
We develop a new methodology for the efficient computation of epidemic final size distributions for a broad class of Markovian models. We exploit a particular representation of the…
Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics
Andrew J. Black, Arne Traulsen, Tobias Galla
Without mutation and migration, evolutionary dynamics ultimately leads to the extinction of all but one species. Such fixation processes are well understood and can be characterize…
WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution
Andrew J. Black, Alan J. McKane
We calculate both the exponential and pre-factor contributions in a WKB approximation of the master equation for a stochastic SIR model with highly oscillatory dynamics. Fixing the…
Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing
Andrew J Black, Alan J McKane
We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochastic…