5 papers
Political Shocks and Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
What do trading and prices each reveal when political news hits a prediction market? We answer using Polymarket's on-chain ledger around three shocks in the 2024 U.S. presidential…
Partial Identification of Spatial Production Networks
Shaowen Luo, Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Which regional exposure conclusions are identified when public data do not observe buyer-seller links across states? We study this question by treating the missing intermediate-inp…
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decom…
Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissent in FOMC Meetings
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent t…
Waiting Time Distribution of Supra-Arcade Downflows
Zichao Yang, Rui Liu
Supra-arcade downflows (SADs) are dark, sunward-moving structures above the arcade of flare loops. Naturally they are considered to be associated with outflows resulting from magne…