3 papers
econ.GN2026
Political Shocks and Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
What do trading and prices each reveal when political news hits a prediction market? We answer using Polymarket's on-chain ledger around three shocks in the 2024 U.S. presidential…
econ.GN2026
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decom…
econ.GN2025
Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissent in FOMC Meetings
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent t…