17 papers
AI-boosted rare event sampling to characterize extreme weather
Amaury Lancelin, Alex Wikner, Laurent Dubus +5
Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate mod…
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Anna Asch, Raphael Rossellini, Pedram Hassanzadeh +1
Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how w…
Semi-analytical eddy-viscosity and backscattering closures for 2D geophysical turbulence
Yifei Guan, Pedram Hassanzadeh
Physics-based eddy-viscosity and backscattering closures are widely used for large-eddy simulation (LES) of geophysical turbulence, but their key parameters are often chosen empiri…
Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making
Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus +7
Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and b…
Prediction of Extreme Events in Multiscale Simulations of Geophysical Turbulence using Reinforcement Learning
Yifei Guan, Lucas Amoudruz, Sergey Litvinov +4
Accurate subgrid-scale closures are essential for weather/climate models, where predicting extreme events is critical. Traditional closures have structural errors, e.g., producing…
Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon
Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus +9
Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing…