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math.PR2025

Geometric BSDEs

Roger J. A. Laeven, Emanuela Rosazza Gianin, Marco Zullino

We introduce Geometric Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (GBSDEs) and two-driver BSDEs, which arise naturally in the geometric dynamics of dynamic return risk measures and…

math.PR2025

Markovian multivariate Hawkes population processes: Efficient evaluation of moments

R. S. Karim, R. J. A. Laeven, M +1

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in…

math.PR2025

Delayed Hawkes birth-death processes

Justin Baars, Roger J. A. Laeven, Michel Mandjes

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not incre…

math.PR2025

Sample Path Large Deviations for Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes and Related Lévy Processes

Jose Blanchet, Roger J. A. Laeven, Xingyu Wang +1

In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events…

math.PR2025

Tail Asymptotics of Cluster Sizes in Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes

Jose Blanchet, Roger J. A. Laeven, Xingyu Wang +1

We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes.…

math.PR2024

Spatiotemporal Hawkes processes with a graphon-induced connectivity structure

Justin Baars, Roger J. A. Laeven, Michel Mandjes

We introduce a spatiotemporal self-exciting point process , boundedly finite both over time and space , with excitation structure determined by a…