4 papers
Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Noelia Otero, Sam Allen
Renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important component of energy systems. However, renewable energy production is heavily dependent on the prevailing weather conditions,…
Efficient pooling of predictions via kernel embeddings
Sam Allen, David Ginsbourger, Johanna Ziegel
Probabilistic predictions are probability distributions over the set of possible outcomes. Such predictions quantify the uncertainty in the outcome, making them essential for effec…
Assessing the calibration of multivariate probabilistic forecasts
Sam Allen, Johanna Ziegel, David Ginsbourger
Rank and PIT histograms are established tools to assess the calibration of probabilistic forecasts. They not only check whether an ensemble forecast is calibrated, but they also re…
Weighted scoringRules: Emphasising Particular Outcomes when Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts
Sam Allen
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts…