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stat.ME2021
Recalibration of Predictive Models as Approximate Probabilistic Updates
Evan T. R. Rosenman, Santiago Olivella
The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known derived quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, m…
stat.AP2021
Dynamic Stochastic Blockmodel Regression for Network Data: Application to International Militarized Conflicts
Santiago Olivella, Tyler Pratt, Kosuke Imai
A primary goal of social science research is to understand how latent group memberships predict the dynamic process of network evolution. In the modeling of international militariz…