141 citations · 341 across the 15 of their papers we have counts for
16 papers
Risk-Based Dynamic Thermal Rating in Distribution Transformers via Probabilistic Forecasting
Scott Angus, Jethro Browell, David Greenwood +1
Low voltage (LV) distribution transformers face accelerating demand growth while replacement lead times and costs continue to rise, making improved utilisation of existing assets e…
Probabilistic forecasting of weather-driven faults in electricity networks: a flexible approach for extreme and non-extreme events
Mateus Maia, Daniela Castro-Camilo, Jethro Browell
Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to…
The Hybrid Renewable Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition 2024
Jethro Browell, Dennis van der Meer, Henrik Kälvegren +4
The Hybrid Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition challenged participants to forecast and trade the electricity generation from a 3.6GW portfolio of wind and solar farms in Gre…
Adaptive Bayesian Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on the Generalised Logit Transformation
Tao Shen, Jethro Browell, Daniela Castro-Camilo
Wind power plays an increasingly significant role in achieving the 2050 Net Zero Strategy. Despite its rapid growth, its inherent variability presents challenges in forecasting. Ac…
evalprob4cast: An R-package for evaluation of ensembles as probabilistic forecasts or event forecasts
Mathias Blicher Bjerregård, Jethro Browell, John Zack +4
For any forecasting application, evaluation of forecasts is an important task. For example, in the field of renewable energy sources there is high variability and uncertainty of po…
Seamless short- to mid-term probabilistic wind power forecasting
Gabriel Dantas, Jethro Browell
This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addres…
Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity (Net-)Load
Joseph de Vilmarest, Jethro Browell, Matteo Fasiolo +2
Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and e…
Additive Covariance Matrix Models: Modelling Regional Electricity Net-Demand in Great Britain
V. Gioia, M. Fasiolo, J. Browell +1
Forecasts of regional electricity net-demand, consumption minus embedded generation, are an essential input for reliable and economic power system operation, and energy trading. Wh…
Probabilistic load forecasting for the low voltage network: forecast fusion and daily peaks
Ciaran Gilbert, Jethro Browell, Bruce Stephen
Short-term forecasts of energy consumption are invaluable for the operation of energy systems, including low voltage electricity networks. However, network loads are challenging to…
Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling
Michael T. Craig, Jan Wohland, Laurens P. Stoop +20
Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modelling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions i…
The application of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions for hydropower forecasting
Robert M. Graham, Jethro Browell, Douglas Bertram +1
Inflow forecasts play an essential role in the management of hydropower reservoirs. Forecasts help operators schedule power generation in advance to maximise economic value, mitiga…
Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-load with Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP
Jethro Browell, Matteo Fasiolo
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for produc…
Satellite data for the offshore renewable energy sector: synergies and innovation opportunities
E. Medina-Lopez, D. McMillan, J. Lazic +17
Can satellite data be used to address challenges currently faced by the Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) sector? What benefit can satellite observations bring to resource assessment…
Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos +77
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organ…
Risk Constrained Trading Strategies for Stochastic Generation with a Single-Price Balancing Market
Jethro Browell
Due to the limited predictability of wind power and other stochastic generation, trading this energy in competitive electricity markets is challenging. This paper derives revenue-m…
Improved Very-short-term Wind Forecasting using Atmospheric Classification
Jethro Browell, Daniel R. Drew, Kostas Philippopoulos
We present a regime-switching vector-autoregressive method for very-short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple locations with regimes based on large-scale meteorological phenome…