18 citations · 37 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Stealing profits: Spread-based temporal hierarchy forecasting for day-ahead electricity markets
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Rafal Weron
Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual…
Foundation models for electricity price forecasting and battery arbitrage: Can they replace market-specific forecasting models?
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Rafał Weron
Foundation models promise accurate forecasts with little or no task-specific training, but whether they can replace models designed specifically for electricity price forecasting r…
Probabilistic forecasting via post-processing prediction errors: In- or out-of-sample?
Piotr Zaborowski, Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Fotios Petropoulos +1
Many forecasting systems produce point forecasts even when decisions require information about uncertainty. We investigate whether post-processing methods can systematically improv…
Competition between private and expressed opinions in binary choice: the -EPO -voter model
Barbara Kamińska, Barbara Nowak, Arkadiusz Lipiecki +1
People often express opinions that differ from their privately held views, a phenomenon known in economy as preference falsification. Expressed-private opinion (EPO) models capture…
Statistical and economic evaluation of forecasts in electricity markets: beyond RMSE and MAE
Katarzyna Maciejowska, Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Bartosz Uniejewski
Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational d…
When heterogeneity drives hysteresis: Anticonformity in the multistate -voter model on networks
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron
Discontinuous phase transitions are closely linked to tipping points, critical mass effects, and hysteresis, phenomena that have been confirmed empirically and recognized as highly…
Stealing Accuracy: Predicting Day-ahead Electricity Prices with Temporal Hierarchy Forecasting (THieF)
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Kaja Bilinska, Nicolaos Kourentzes +1
We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-h…
Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron
Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. Howeve…
Polarization in the three-state -voter model with anticonformity and bounded confidence
Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron
Engaging with dissenting views, fostering productive disagreements or strategic anticonformity can benefit organizations as it challenges the status quo. The question arises, howev…
Discontinuous phase transitions in the q-voter model with generalized anticonformity on random graphs
Angelika Abramiuk-Szurlej, Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Jakub Pawłowski +1
We study the binary -voter model with generalized anticonformity on random Erdős-Rényi graphs. In such a model, two types of social responses, conformity and anticonformity, occ…