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stat.ME2026

Retrospective Counterfactual Prediction by Conditioning on the Factual Outcome: A Cross-World Approach

Juraj Bodik

Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $μ(x,y)=\mathbb{E…

stat.ME2026

Cross-World Assumption and Refining Prediction Intervals for Individual Treatment Effects

Juraj Bodik, Yaxuan Huang, Bin Yu

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty a…

stat.ME2025

Identifiability of causal graphs under nonadditive conditionally parametric causal models

Juraj Bodik, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Existing approaches to causal discovery often rely on restrictive modeling assumptions that limit their applicability in real-world settings, particularly when data are heavy-taile…

stat.ME2025

Structural restrictions in local causal discovery: identifying direct causes of a target variable

Juraj Bodik, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the…

stat.ME2024

Extreme Treatment Effect: Extrapolating Dose-Response Function Into Extreme Treatment Domain

Juraj Bodik

The potential outcomes framework serves as a fundamental tool for quantifying causal effects. The average dose-response function (also called the effect curve), denoted as (μ(t)),…