11 papers
A General Theory of Liquidity Provisioning for Prediction Markets
Adithya Bhaskara, Rafael Frongillo, Elias Lindgren +1
Liquidity provisioning in automated market makers is the practice of recruiting third-party liquidity providers (LPs) to contribute assets to the market in exchange for fees skimme…
Joint-task truthfulness of the DMI mechanism
Rafael Frongillo
The Determinant Mutual Information (DMI) mechanism of Kong (2020, 2024) is dominantly truthful within the class of *consistent* reporting strategies, those that apply the same sing…
Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration
Rafael Frongillo, Haipeng Luo, Nishant A. Mehta +1
U-calibration studies online forecasting algorithms whose predictions can be consumed by any unknown downstream agent, guaranteeing sublinear regret simultaneously for all proper l…
Adaptive Liquidity in Prediction Markets via Online Learning
Enrique Nueve, Bao Nguyen, Rafael Frongillo +1
Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between…
Peer Prediction with More Signals than Reports
Rafael Frongillo, Ian Kash, Mary Monroe
Peer prediction mechanisms are typically proposed and analyzed under the assumption that the report and signal spaces are identical. In practice, however, agents often observe rich…
Equilibria in Large Position-Optimization Games
Rafael Frongillo, Melody Hsu, Mary Monroe +1
We propose a general class of symmetric games called position-optimization games. Given a probability distribution over a set of targets , the players each cho…