141 citations · 348 across the 38 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers · 1 filter
Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data
Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery +109
Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child w…
Can AI agents conduct open-ended AI research? Early evidence from two case studies
Peter Kirgis, Sayash Kapoor, Andrew Schwartz +21
Forecasts of explosive AI progress hinge on AI agents automating AI research. But evidence on whether agents can carry out open-ended AI research is thin. Current evaluations eithe…
FLARE-AI: Flaw Reporting for AI
Shayne Longpre, Elaine Zhu, Carson Ezell +15
Flaw reporting for deployed AI systems is fundamental to identifying system failures and improving AI safety. Yet the AI reporting ecosystem is fragmented: researchers who identify…
Bridging Predictions and Interventions: An Integrated Framework for Automated Decision-Systems
Inioluwa Deborah Raji, Lydia T. Liu, Angela Zhou +27
Automated decision systems (ADS) leverage predictions about individual future outcomes to inform consequential decision-making in organizational settings. Across various settings -…
Life After Benchmark Saturation: A Case Study of CORE-Bench
Nitya Nadgir, Sayash Kapoor, Kangheng Liu +11
When a benchmark's accuracy saturates, it is often retired and replaced with a more challenging version. We show that this approach privileges accuracy and misses the opportunity t…
Open-World Evaluations for Measuring Frontier AI Capabilities
Sayash Kapoor, Peter Kirgis, Andrew Schwartz +15
Benchmark-based evaluation remains important for tracking frontier AI progress. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be…
Log analysis is necessary for credible evaluation of AI agents
Peter Kirgis, Sayash Kapoor, Stephan Rabanser +8
Agent benchmarks typically report only final outcomes: pass or fail. This threatens evaluation credibility in three ways. First, scores may be inflated or deflated by shortcuts and…
Seven simple steps for log analysis in AI systems
Magda Dubois, Ekin Zorer, Maia Hamin +17
AI systems produce large volumes of logs as they interact with tools and users. Analysing these logs can help understand model capabilities, propensities, and behaviours, or assess…
International AI Safety Report 2026
Yoshua Bengio, Stephen Clare, Carina Prunkl +89
The International AI Safety Report 2026 synthesises the current scientific evidence on the capabilities, emerging risks, and safety of general-purpose AI systems. The report series…
Towards a Science of AI Agent Reliability
Stephan Rabanser, Sayash Kapoor, Peter Kirgis +3
AI agents are increasingly deployed to execute important tasks. While rising accuracy scores on standard benchmarks suggest rapid progress, many agents still continue to fail in pr…