5 papers
Modeling outcomes of soccer matches
Alkeos Tsokos, Santhosh Narayanan, Ioannis Kosmidis +4
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win,…
Modeling goal chances in soccer: a Bayesian inference approach
Gavin A. Whitaker, Ricardo Silva, Daniel Edwards
We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch…
A Bayesian inference approach for determining player abilities in football
Gavin A. Whitaker, Ricardo Silva, Daniel Edwards +1
We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using v…
Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations
Gavin A. Whitaker, Andrew Golightly, Richard J. Boys +1
We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an obs…
Bayesian inference for diffusion driven mixed-effects models
Gavin A. Whitaker, Andrew Golightly, Richard J. Boys +1
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes…