3 papers
math.PR2026
Impact of spinning on the early-warning signs in non-Markovian stochastic systems
Paolo Bernuzzi, Alexandra Blessing, Dennis Rudik
We construct early-warning signals for impending critical transitions in non-Markovian systems. We analyze stochastic forcings such as fractional Brownian motion, fractional Ornste…
math.PR2025
Critical Slowing Down in Bifurcating Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with Red Noise
Paolo Bernuzzi, Christian Kuehn, Andreas Morr
The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic…
math.PR2025
Probability of Transition to Turbulence in a Reduced Stochastic Model of Pipe Flow
Paolo Bernuzzi, Christian Kuehn
We study the phenomenon of turbulence initiation in pipe flow under different noise structures by estimating the probability of initiating metastable transitions. We establish lowe…