most citedThe good, the bad, and the ugly: Bayesian model selection produces spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees

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math.ST2018★ 2 cited

The good, the bad, and the ugly: Bayesian model selection produces spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees

Ziheng Yang, Tianqi Zhu

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confiden…