2 papers
math.DS2021
Stochastic gel-shatter cycles in coalescence-fragmentation models
Brennen T. Fagan, Niall J. MacKay, Dmitri O. Pushkin +1
We describe a new phenomenon in models of coalescence and fragmentation, that of gel-shatter cycles. These are dynamical, unforced, stochastic cycles in which slow, approximately d…
stat.AP2019
Changepoint analysis of historical battle deaths
Brennen T. Fagan, Marina I. Knight, Niall J. MacKay +1
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented,…