11 citations · 29 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers · 1 filter
Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linea…
A New Test for Market Efficiency and Uncovered Interest Parity
Richard T. Baillie, Francis X. Diebold, George Kapetanios +1
We suggest a new single-equation test for Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) based on a dynamic regression approach. The method provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parame…
On the Past, Present, and Future of the Diebold-Yilmaz Approach to Dynamic Network Connectedness
Francis X. Diebold, Kamil Yilmaz
We offer retrospective and prospective assessments of the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness research program, combined with personal recollections of its development. Its centerpiece in…
Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models
Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Goebel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe
We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. W…
On Robust Inference in Time Series Regression
Richard T. Baillie, Francis X. Diebold, George Kapetanios +2
Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors ("OLS-HC regression") has proved very useful in cross section environments. However, several major diffi…
When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, Maximilian Goebel +2
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea…
A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Gobel
We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for targe…
"Big Data" and its Origins
Francis X. Diebold
Against the background of explosive growth in data volume, velocity, and variety, I investigate the origins of the term "Big Data". Its origins are a bit murky and hence intriguing…
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020
Francis X. Diebold
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and relea…