Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion

Sukun Cheng, Ali Aydoğdu, Pierre Rampal +2

We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-li…