70 citations · 122 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers
Towards reliable projections of global mean surface temperature
Philip G. Sansom, Donald Cummins, Stephan Siegert +1
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temper…
State-space modeling of intra-seasonal persistence in daily climate indices: a data-driven approach for seasonal forecasting
Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, Daniel B. Williamson
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. W…
On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models
Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a…
Inference for spatial processes using imperfect data from measurements and numerical simulations
Benjamin D. Youngman, David B. Stephenson
We present a framework for inference for spatial processes that have actual values imperfectly represented by data. Environmental processes represented as spatial fields, either at…
A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?
Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson, Philip G. Sansom +3
Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper propose…
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
Theodoros Economou, David B. Stephenson, Christopher A. T. Ferro
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-200…
Evaluating ensemble forecasts by the Ignorance score -- Correcting the finite-ensemble bias
Stefan Siegert, Christopher A. T. Ferro, David B. Stephenson
This study considers the application of the Ignorance Score (also known as the Logarithmic Score) in the context of ensemble verification. In particular, we consider the case where…
On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts
Tim E. Jupp, Rachel Lowe, Caio A. S. Coelho +1
We develop a geometrical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle. Within the triangle, we def…