4 papers
Towards reliable projections of global mean surface temperature
Philip G. Sansom, Donald Cummins, Stephan Siegert +1
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temper…
State-space modeling of intra-seasonal persistence in daily climate indices: a data-driven approach for seasonal forecasting
Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, Daniel B. Williamson
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. W…
On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models
Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a…
Inference for spatial processes using imperfect data from measurements and numerical simulations
Benjamin D. Youngman, David B. Stephenson
We present a framework for inference for spatial processes that have actual values imperfectly represented by data. Environmental processes represented as spatial fields, either at…