2 papers
econ.GN2026
How optimistic inflow forecasts distort dispatch, prices, and contracts in hydro-dominated power systems: evidence from Brazil
Arthur Brigatto, Alexandre Street, Joaquim Dias Garcia
Centralized hydrothermal planning models determine generation schedules and electricity spot prices based on inflow forecasts in audited-cost power systems, such as those prevalent…
eess.SY2025
Assessing the Optimistic Bias in the Natural Inflow Forecasts: A Call for Model Monitoring in Brazil
Arthur Brigatto, Alexandre Street, Cristiano Fernandes +3
Hydroelectricity accounted for roughly 61.4% of Brazil's total generation in 2024 and addressed most of the intermittency of wind and solar generation. Thus, inflow forecasting pla…