457 citations · 500 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
Evaluating Counterfactual Policies Using Instruments
Michal Kolesár, José Luis Montiel Olea, Jonathan Roth
We study settings in which a researcher has an instrumental variable (IV) and seeks to evaluate the effects of a counterfactual policy that alters treatment assignment, such as a d…
Approximate Least-Favorable Distributions and Nearly Optimal Tests via Stochastic Mirror Descent
Andrés Aradillas Fernández, José Blanchet, José Luis Montiel Olea +3
We consider a class of hypothesis testing problems where the null hypothesis postulates distributions for the observed data, and there is only one possible distribution under t…
Epsilon-Minimax Solutions of Statistical Decision Problems
Andrés Aradillas Fernández, José Blanchet, José Luis Montiel Olea +3
A decision rule is epsilon-minimax if it is minimax up to an additive factor epsilon. We present an algorithm for provably obtaining epsilon-minimax solutions for a class of statis…
Projection Inference for set-identified SVARs
Bulat Gafarov, Matthias Meier, José Luis Montiel Olea
We study the properties of the classical \emph{projection} method to conduct simultaneous inference about the coefficients of the structural impulse-response function and their ide…
Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists
José Luis Montiel Olea, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Eric Qian +1
What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in fi…