3 papers
econ.EM2026
Stochastic Potential Choices and Outcomes
Aureo de Paula, Elie Tamer
Applied econometricians typically model each individual as having fixed outcomes under treatment and control and, in instrumental-variables (IV) settings, fixed treatment decisions…
econ.EM2025
Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Interval Outcomes
Weiguang Liu, Áureo de Paula, Elie Tamer
Given data on a random variable \(Y\), a prediction set with miscoverage level \(α\in (0,1)\) is a set that contains a new draw of \(Y\) with probability \(1-α\). Among all predict…
econ.EM2024
Production function estimation using subjective expectations data
Agnes Norris Keiller, Aureo de Paula, John Van Reenen
Standard proxy methods for estimating production functions in the \Olley and Pakes (1996) tradition require assumptions on input choices. We introduce a new method that exploits (i…