3 papers
stat.ME2025
Online detection of forecast model inadequacies using forecast errors
Thomas Grundy, Rebecca Killick, Ivan Svetunkov
In many organisations, accurate forecasts are essential for making informed decisions for a variety of applications from inventory management to staffing optimization. Whatever for…
stat.AP2024
Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?
Claudie Beaulieu, Colin Gallagher, Rebecca Killick +2
The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in…
stat.ME2023
Automatic Locally Stationary Time Series Forecasting with application to predicting U.K. Gross Value Added Time Series under sudden shocks caused by the COVID pandemic
Rebecca Killick, Marina I. Knight, Guy P. Nason +2
Accurate forecasting of the U.K. gross value added (GVA) is fundamental for measuring the growth of the U.K. economy. A common nonstationarity in GVA data, such as the ABML series,…