activity
20242026
collaborators

7 papers

stat.ME2026

Beyond Laplace: Closed-form wrapped Gaussian posterior approximations on statistical manifolds

Marcelo Hartmann, Luu Hoang Phuc Hau, Anton Mallasto +8

In Bayesian statistics, the Laplace approximation provides a computationally efficient approximation to posterior distributions. However, its Gaussian form restricts it to elliptic…

stat.ME2026

Optimal information deletion and Bayes' theorem

Hans Montcho, HÃ¥vard Rue

Arnold Zellner published a seminal paper on Bayes' theorem as an optimal information processing rule, a result that led to the variational formulation of Bayes' theorem, and a cent…

stat.ME2026

Spatially continuous modelling of aggregated outcome data

Stephen Jun Villejo, Peter Diggle, Finn Lindgren +5

This work develops a block aggregation approach to spatial estimation and prediction when the response is observed at a coarse spatial scale, for example as counts of events in adm…

stat.ME2026

Bayesian identification of early warning signals for long-range dependent climatic time series

Sigrunn H. Sørbye, Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Håvard Rue

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased varia…

stat.ME2025

A new approach for Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and cure-survival outcomes using the defective Gompertz distribution

Dionisio Silva Neto, Denis Rustand, Haavard Rue +2

In recent medical studies, the combination of longitudinal measurements with time-to-event data has increased the demand for more sophisticated models without unbiased estimates. J…

stat.ME2025

Statistical inference for radial generalized Pareto distributions and return sets in geometric extremes

Ioannis Papastathopoulos, Lambert de Monte, Ryan Campbell +1

We use a functional analogue of the quantile function for probability measures on to characterize a novel limit Poisson point process for radially recentred and resc…