activity
20242026
collaborators

9 papers

math.ST2026

Gradient-enhanced global sensitivity analysis with Poincar{é} chaos expansions

O Roustant, N Lüthen, David Heredia +1

Spectral methods, also known as chaos expansions, are widely used in global sensitivity analysis (GSA), as they leverage orthogonal bases of L2 spaces to efficiently compute Sobol'…

math.DS2026

Probabilistic function-on-function nonlinear autoregressive model for emulation and reliability analysis of stochastic dynamical systems

Zhouzhou Song, Marcos A. Valdebenito, Styfen Schär +3

Constructing accurate and computationally efficient surrogate models (or emulators) for predicting dynamical system responses is critical in many engineering domains, yet remains c…

stat.CO2026

Reliability analysis for non-deterministic limit-states using stochastic emulators

Anderson V. Pires, Maliki Moustapha, Stefano Marelli +1

Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this…

stat.ML2026

MF-GLaM: A multifidelity stochastic emulator using generalized lambda models

K. Giannoukou, X. Zhu, S. Marelli +1

Stochastic simulators exhibit intrinsic stochasticity due to unobservable, uncontrollable, or unmodeled input variables, resulting in random outputs even at fixed input conditions.…

stat.CO2026

mNARX+: A surrogate model for complex dynamical systems using manifold-NARX and automatic feature selection

S. Schär, S. Marelli, B. Sudret

We propose an automatic approach for manifold nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (mNARX) modeling that leverages the feature-based structure of functional-NARX (F-NARX)…

stat.ME2026

Conformal prediction for full and sparse polynomial chaos expansions

A. Hatstatt, X. Zhu, B. Sudret

Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are widely recognized for their efficient computational performance in surrogate modeling. Yet, a robust framework to quantify local model errors…