4 papers
Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein +10
Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented a…
Thinned Mean Field Langevin Dynamics
Zonghao Chen, Heishiro Kanagawa, François-Xavier Briol +2
Several important learning tasks can be formulated as minimizing an entropy-regularized objective over an appropriate space of probability distributions. Mean-field Langevin dynami…
Probabilistic Inference and Learning with Stein's Method
Qiang Liu, Lester Mackey, Chris Oates
This monograph provides a rigorous overview of theoretical and methodological aspects of probabilistic inference and learning with Stein's method. Recipes are provided for construc…
It's Hard to Be Normal: The Impact of Noise on Structure-agnostic Estimation
Jikai Jin, Lester Mackey, Vasilis Syrgkanis
Structure-agnostic causal inference studies how well one can estimate a treatment effect given black-box machine learning estimates of nuisance functions (like the impact of confou…