536 citations · 1.5k across the 20 of their papers we have counts for
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Forecaster's Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation
Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Francesco Ravazzolo +1
In public discussions of the quality of forecasts, attention typically focuses on the predictive performance in cases of extreme events. However, the restriction of conventional fo…
Similarity-based semi-local estimation of EMOS models
Sebastian Lerch, Sandor Baran
Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physi…
Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed
Sándor Baran, Sebastian Lerch
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather predictio…