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physics.geo-ph2026
Extrapolation from historical data cannot reliably predict the time of a potential AMOC collapse
Andreas Morr, Maya Ben-Yami, Brian Groenke +6
Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen [Nature Communications, 2023] (DD23 hereafter) propose a statistical framework to estimate the timing of a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Ove…
physics.geo-ph2024
Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data
Maya Ben-Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +1
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate…