6 citations · 6 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Semi-Markov Models with Particle-Based Bayesian Inference for Epidemics
Patrick Aschermayr, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos Demiris
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evol…
Exchangeable Gaussian Processes with application to epidemics
Lampros Bouranis, Petros Barmpounakis, Nikolaos Demiris +1
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric framework based on multi-task Gaussian processes, appropriate for temporal shrinkage. We focus on a particular class of dynamic hierarchical mo…
Stable Survival Extrapolation via Transfer Learning
Anastasios Apsemidis, Nikolaos Demiris
The mean survival is the key ingredient of the decision process in several applications, notably in health economic evaluations. It is defined as the area under the complete surviv…
Bayesian Evidence Synthesis for Modeling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission
Anastasios Apsemidis, Nikolaos Demiris
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-repo…
Multiphasic stochastic epidemic models
Petros Barmpounakis, Nikolaos Demiris
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transm…
Bayesian analysis of diffusion-driven multi-type epidemic models with application to COVID-19
Lampros Bouranis, Nikolaos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos +1
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of t…
A modelling framework for the analysis of the SARS-CoV2 transmission dynamics
Anastasia Chatzilena, Nikolaos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos
Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pan…
Inference and model determination for Temperature-Driven non-linear Ecological Models
Marios Kondakis, Nikolaos Demiris, Ioannis Ntzoufras +1
This paper is concerned with a contemporary Bayesian approach to the effect of temperature on developmental rates. We develop statistical methods using recent computational tools t…
Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan
Anastasia Chatzilena, Edwin van Leeuwen, Oliver Ratmann +2
This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using…
Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic models with applications to sheep pox
C. Malesios, N. Demiris, K. Kalogeropoulos +1
Epidemic data often possess certain characteristics, such as the presence of many zeros, the spatial nature of the disease spread mechanism or environmental noise. This paper addre…