5 papers
Manifold Constrained Conformal Prediction for Spatial Events
Collin Nill, Trevor Harris, Jason Adams
We introduce a new conformal prediction method that constructs calibrated prediction sets over collections of spatial events, such as tropical cyclone genesis and earthquake locati…
Locally Adaptive Conformal Inference for Operator Models
Trevor Harris, Yan Liu
Operator models are regression algorithms between Banach spaces of functions. They have become an increasingly critical tool for spatiotemporal forecasting and physics emulation, e…
Flow-Based Conformal Predictive Distributions
Trevor Harris
Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are e…
Forecasting West Nile virus with deep graph encoders
Ethan Greiffenstein, Trevor Harris, Rebecca Smith
West Nile virus is a significant, and growing, public health issue in the United States. With no human vaccine, mosquito control programs rely on accurate forecasting to determine…
Quantifying uncertainty in climate projections with conformal ensembles
Trevor Harris, Ryan Sriver
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensem…