2 papers
cs.AI2026
When do prophets profit in prediction markets?
Anri Gu, Nicole Kagan, Alec Sun +2
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecas…
cs.AI2025
LLM-as-a-Prophet: Understanding Predictive Intelligence with Prophet Arena
Qingchuan Yang, Simon Mahns, Sida Li +3
Forecasting is not only a fundamental intellectual pursuit but also is of significant importance to societal systems such as finance and economics. With the rapid advances of large…