70 citations · 102 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Parameter uncertainty in forecast recalibration
Stefan Siegert, Philip G. Sansom, Robin Williams
Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To…
A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?
Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson, Philip G. Sansom +3
Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper propose…
Skill of data based predictions versus dynamical models -- case study on extreme temperature anomalies
Stefan Siegert, Jochen Broecker, Holger Kantz
We compare probabilistic predictions of extreme temperature anomalies issued by two different forecast schemes. One is a dynamical physical weather model, the other a simple data m…