4 papers · 1 filter
Age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting: Rolling window, expanding window, or both?
Sizhe Chen, Han Lin Shang
Rolling and expanding windows are widely used in age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting. Building on these approaches, we propose a simple combination method that assign…
Mortality Models Ensemble via Shapley Value
Giovanna Bimonte, Maria Russolillo, Han Lin Shang +1
Model averaging techniques in the actuarial literature aim to forecast future longevity appropriately by combining forecasts derived from various models. This approach often yields…
Age-period modeling of mortality gaps: the cases of cancer and circulatory diseases
Giacomo Lanfiuti Baldi, Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang
Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compa…
Is the age pension in Australia sustainable and fair? Evidence from forecasting the old-age dependency ratio using the Hamilton-Perry model
Sizhe Chen, Han Lin Shang, Yang Yang
The age pension aims to assist eligible elderly Australians meet specific age and residency criteria in maintaining basic living standards. In designing efficient pension systems,…