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stat.ME2025
Modeling and forecasting subnational age distribution of death counts
Han Lin Shang, Cristian F. Jiménez-Varón
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts.…
stat.ME2024
Forecasting Age Distribution of Deaths: Cumulative Distribution Function Transformation
Han Lin Shang, Steven Haberman
Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established mod…
stat.ME2020★ 1 cited
Functional time series forecasting of extreme values
Han Lin Shang, Ruofan Xu
We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three pa…