18 citations · 45 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers · 1 filter
Scarlet Fever Dynamics in 19th and 20th Century London
Kevin H. Zhao, David J. D. Earn
Weekly scarlet fever (SF) mortality records for London, UK, from 1842 to 1939, together with notified case records from 1901 to 1939, reveal a strong annual epidemic pattern with p…
Jointly estimating transmissibility and prior immunity from epidemic time series
David J. D. Earn, Todd L. Parsons
Infectious disease time series are often used to estimate a pathogen's basic reproduction number, . However, fits of epidemic models to time series conflate pathogen transmiss…
Global stability of epidemic models with uniform susceptibility
David J. D. Earn, C. Connell McCluskey
Transmission dynamics of infectious diseases are often studied using compartmental mathematical models, which are commonly represented as systems of autonomous ordinary differentia…
Epidemic "momentum" and a conservation law for infectious disease dynamics
David J. D. Earn, Todd L. Parsons
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct m…
Toward a comprehensive system for constructing compartmental epidemic models
Darren Flynn-Primrose, Steven C. Walker, Michael Li +3
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspon…
Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
Michael Li, Jonathan Dushoff, David J. D. Earn +1
Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; i…
Testing and Isolation Efficacy: Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model
Ali Gharouni, F. M. Abdelmalek, David J. D. Earn +2
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or p…
Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing
Irena Papst, David J. D. Earn
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced ph…