3 papers
stat.AP2026
Distributional Forecasting of EU Asylum Applications with Dynamic Multivariate Count Models
Gregor Zens, Jakub Bijak
We propose a Bayesian framework for joint distributional forecasting of monthly asylum applications across the EU-27. The model decomposes latent application intensities into count…
stat.AP2025
Dynamic Count Models with Flexible Innovation Processes for Irregular Maritime Migration
Gregor Zens, Jakub Bijak
Motivated by the challenge of analyzing the dynamics of weekly sea border crossings in the Mediterranean (2015-2025) and the English Channel (2018-2025), we develop a Bayesian dyna…
stat.AP2019
Forecasting Fertility with Parametric Mixture Models
Jason Hilton, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster +2
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertili…