From the 1 of 19 linked papers with an AI index.
19 papers
Contribution of expert aggregation to temperature prediction part II: Second order bounds with sleeping experts
Léo Pfitzner, Olivier Wintenberger, Olivier Mestre
The paper enhances online expert aggregation for temperature forecasting by incorporating the Sleeping Expert Framework and gradient‑boosted regression trees, achieving faster adap…
Contribution of expert aggregation to temperature prediction part i
Leo Pfitzner, Léo Pfitzner, Olivier Wintenberger +2
Many Numerical Weather Prediction models and their associated Post-Processed Models are available. Combining all of these predictions in an optimal way is however not straightforwa…
Assessing Extrapolation of Peaks Over Thresholds with Martingale Testing
Joseph de Vilmarest, Olivier Wintenberger
We present the winning strategy for the EVA2025 Data Challenge, which aimed to estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events. These events occurred at most once in the d…
A duration-augmented binary Markov chain for rainfall occurrence with long dry spells
Antoine Doizé, Denis Allard, Philippe Naveau +1
Simulating realistic wet and dry spells is central in weather generators and climate-impact studies. While finite-order Markov chains are standard, they often fail to reproduce per…
High-Probability Minimax Adaptive Estimation in Besov Spaces via Online-to-Batch
Paul Liautaud, Pierre Gaillard, Olivier Wintenberger
We study nonparametric regression over Besov spaces from noisy observations under sub-exponential noise, aiming to achieve minimax-optimal guarantees on the integrated squared erro…
Geometry-Aware Optimal Transport: Fast Intrinsic Dimension and Wasserstein Distance Estimation
Ferdinand Genans, Olivier Wintenberger
Solving large scale Optimal Transport (OT) in machine learning typically relies on sampling measures to obtain a tractable discrete problem. While the discrete solver's accuracy is…