64 citations · 130 across the 26 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers · 1 filter
Efficient scenario analysis in real-time Bayesian election forecasting via sequential meta-posterior sampling
Geonhee Han, Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari
Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The E…
Bridge Sampling Diagnostics
Giorgio Micaletto, Aki Vehtari
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood is used for model selection and averaging, yet it is often challenging to compute accurately for complex models. Approaches such as…
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
Javier Enrique Aguilar, David Kohns, Aki Vehtari +1
We introduce the Group-R2 decomposition prior, a hierarchical shrinkage prior that extends R2-based priors to structured regression settings with known groups of predictors. By dec…
Joint leave-group-out cross-validation in Bayesian spatial models
Alex Cooper, Aki Vehtari, Catherine Forbes
Cross-validation (CV) is a widely-used method of predictive assessment based on repeated model fits to different subsets of the available data. CV is applicable in a wide range of…
Posterior SBC: Simulation-Based Calibration Checking Conditional on Data
Teemu Säilynoja, Marvin Schmitt, Paul-Christian Bürkner +1
Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) refers to the validation of an inference algorithm and model implementation through repeated inference on data simulated from a generati…
Recommendations for visual predictive checks in Bayesian workflow
Teemu Säilynoja, Andrew R. Johnson, Osvaldo A. Martin +1
A key step in the Bayesian workflow for model building is the graphical assessment of model predictions, whether these are drawn from the prior or posterior predictive distribution…