activity
20192026
most citedLimits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

17 citations · 42 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

8 papers

physics.ao-ph2026

Climate network characterization of the AMOC edge state

Laure Moinat, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini +2

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been identified as a tipping element in the Earth system. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is urgent to dev…

physics.ao-ph2026

Constructing efficient score functions for rare event simulation in high-dimensional ocean-climate models

Lucas Esclapez, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, Reyk Börner +2

Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms,…

physics.ao-ph2026

Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change

René M. van Westen, Reyk Börner, Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC col…

nlin.CD2025★ 5 cited

Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: Edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO forcing

Reyk Börner, Oliver Mehling, Jost von Hardenberg +1

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the A…

math.DS2023★ 12 cited

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer +3

In multistable dynamical systems driven by weak Gaussian noise, transitions between competing states are often assumed to pass via a saddle on the separating basin boundary. By con…

nlin.CD2023★ 17 cited

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Oliver Mehling, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini

Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory…

physics.ao-ph2022

DiuSST: A conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive SST

Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, Romain Fiévet

The diurnal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) may play an important role for cloud organization above the tropical ocean, with implications for precipitation extremes, s…

math.DS2019★ 8 cited

Delay master stability of inertial oscillator networks

Reyk Börner, Paul Schultz, Benjamin Ünzelmann +3

Time lags occur in a vast range of real-world dynamical systems due to finite reaction times or propagation speeds. Here we derive an analytical approach to determine the asymptoti…