9 papers
Fast boundary-aware spatial intensity estimation on complex domains
Takumi Nakagawa, Kōsaku Takanashi, Kenichiro McAlinn +1
Spatial intensity maps are routinely used to summarize point patterns on geographically constrained regions, such as islands, coastlines, watersheds, ecological reserves, and admin…
An Entropy-Energy Identity for Predictive Kullback-Leibler Regret in Infinitely Divisible Location Models
Kōsaku Takanashi, Kenichiro McAlinn
We consider predictive density estimation under logarithmic score for -dimensional infinitely divisible location models. Taking the formal Bayes predictive density under the Leb…
When Is Generalized Bayes Bayesian? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of Loss-Based Updating
Kenichiro McAlinn, Kōsaku Takanashi
Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential…
Dynamic causal inference with time series data
Tanique Schaffe-Odeleye, Kōsaku Takanashi, Vishesh Karwa +2
We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not onl…
Optimal Hold-Out Size in Cross-Validation
Kenichiro McAlinn, Kōsaku Takanashi
Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusi…
Ensemble Doubly Robust Bayesian Inference via Regression Synthesis
Kaoru Babasaki, Shonosuke Sugasawa, Kosaku Takanashi +1
The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. T…