13 papers
Toward a Scientific Discovery Engine for Weather and Climate Data: A Visual Analytics Workbench for Embedding-Based Exploration
Nihanth W. Cherukuru, Matt Rehme, Kirsten J. Mayer +4
Earth system science is producing increasingly large, high-dimensional datasets from both physics-based and AI-driven models. While embedding-based representations make these data…
Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker +1
We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate…
AI-Based Regional Emulation for Kilometer-Scale Dynamical Downscaling
Yingkai Sha, Tracy Hertneky, Ethan Gutmann +6
An AI-based Limited-Area Model (LAM) is developed for dynamical downscaling over the Southern Great Plains and the southeastern United States, with strong generalization abilities…
Data-Driven Probabilistic Air-Sea Flux Parameterization
Jiarong Wu, Pavel Perezhogin, David John Gagne +4
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic f…
Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers
John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker +6
AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predic…
Winter Precipitation Type Diagnosis and Uncertainty Quantification with a Physically Consistent Machine Learning Method
Charlie Becker, David John Gagne, Julie Demuth +8
Accurately forecasting winter precipitation type and its transitions is critical for high-impact decision making. However, existing methods struggle in thermodynamically ambiguous…