activity
20182026
most citedA Feedback Shift Correction in Predicting Conversion Rates under Delayed Feedback

25 citations · 64 across the 19 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

20 papers

stat.ME2026

Modeling Covariate Transition for Efficient Estimation of Longitudinal Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments

Naoki Chihara, Tatsushi Oka, Yasuko Matsubara +2

We present a regression-adjustment framework designed for the estimation of longitudinal treatment effects in randomized experiments under static regimes. While regression-adjustme…

econ.GN2026

Distributional Treatment Effects of Content Promotion: Evidence from an ABEMA Field Experiment

Shota Yasui, Tatsushi Oka, Undral Byambadalai +1

We examine the impact of top-of-screen promotions on viewing time at ABEMA, a leading video streaming platform in Japan. To this end, we conduct a large-scale randomized controlled…

stat.ME2025

Beyond the Average: Distributional Causal Inference under Imperfect Compliance

Undral Byambadalai, Tomu Hirata, Tatsushi Oka +1

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we le…

econ.EM2025

Denoised IPW-Lasso for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation in Randomized Experiments

Mingqian Guan, Komei Fujita, Naoya Sueishi +1

This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identificat…

cs.LG2025

Efficient and Scalable Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects with Multi-Task Neural Networks

Tomu Hirata, Undral Byambadalai, Tatsushi Oka +2

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights int…

econ.EM2025

On Efficient Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization

Undral Byambadalai, Tomu Hirata, Tatsushi Oka +1

This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Ef…

econ.EM2024

Estimating Distributional Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments: Machine Learning for Variance Reduction

Undral Byambadalai, Tatsushi Oka, Shota Yasui

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been exten…

econ.EM2024★ 1 cited

Regression Adjustment for Estimating Distributional Treatment Effects in Randomized Controlled Trials

Tatsushi Oka, Shota Yasui, Yuta Hayakawa +1

In this paper, we address the issue of estimating and inferring distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments. The distributional treatment effect provides a more comp…

cs.LG2023

Automatic Debiased Learning from Positive, Unlabeled, and Exposure Data

Masahiro Kato, Shuting Wu, Kodai Kureishi +1

We address the issue of binary classification from positive and unlabeled data (PU classification) with a selection bias in the positive data. During the observation process, (i) a…

econ.EM2021

Learning Causal Models from Conditional Moment Restrictions by Importance Weighting

Masahiro Kato, Masaaki Imaizumi, Kenichiro McAlinn +2

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions po…

cs.LG2020★ 4 cited

A Practical Guide of Off-Policy Evaluation for Bandit Problems

Masahiro Kato, Kenshi Abe, Kaito Ariu +1

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of estimating the value of a target policy from samples obtained via different policies. Recently, applying OPE methods for bandit proble…

cs.LG2020

The Adaptive Doubly Robust Estimator for Policy Evaluation in Adaptive Experiments and a Paradox Concerning Logging Policy

Masahiro Kato, Shota Yasui, Kenichiro McAlinn

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial…

cs.LG2020★ 5 cited

Learning Classifiers under Delayed Feedback with a Time Window Assumption

Masahiro Kato, Shota Yasui

We consider training a binary classifier under delayed feedback (\emph{DF learning}). For example, in the conversion prediction in online ads, we initially receive negative samples…

cs.LG2020★ 25 cited

A Feedback Shift Correction in Predicting Conversion Rates under Delayed Feedback

Shota Yasui, Gota Morishita, Komei Fujita +1

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is funda…

stat.ML2020★ 12 cited

Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for External Validity under a Covariate Shift

Masahiro Kato, Masatoshi Uehara, Shota Yasui

We consider evaluating and training a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is t…

cs.LG2020★ 7 cited

Debiased Off-Policy Evaluation for Recommendation Systems

Yusuke Narita, Shota Yasui, Kohei Yata

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable…

stat.ML2019★ 2 cited

Dual Learning Algorithm for Delayed Conversions

Yuta Saito, Gota Morishita, Shota Yasui

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for es…

stat.ML2019★ 3 cited

Counterfactual Cross-Validation: Stable Model Selection Procedure for Causal Inference Models

Yuta Saito, Shota Yasui

We study the model selection problem in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the pe…

cs.CY2019★ 5 cited

Fatigue-Aware Ad Creative Selection

Daisuke Moriwaki, Komei Fujita, Shota Yasui +1

In online display advertising, selecting the most effective ad creative (ad image) for each impression is a crucial task for DSPs (Demand-Side Platforms) to fulfill their goals (cl…

cs.LG2018

Efficient Counterfactual Learning from Bandit Feedback

Yusuke Narita, Shota Yasui, Kohei Yata

What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy evaluation and optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorith…